Post-Crisis Fiscal Consolidation Strategies for Europe

In Zusammenarbeit mit dem Arbeitskreis Politische Ökonomie, dem Walter Eucken Institut Freiburg und dem Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Mannheim



Ort: Freiburg, Haus zur Lieben Hand, Löwenstraße 16, 24./25. März 2011


 

Einladung

Namens des Arbeitskreises Europäische Integration e.V., des Zentrums für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, des Walter-Eucken-Instituts der Universität Freiburg und des Arbeitskreises Politische Ökonomie möchte ich Sie sehr herzlich zu unserer Konferenz
 

„Post-Crisis Fiscal Consolidation Strategies for Europe“


einladen. Die Tagung findet am 24. und 25. März 2011 im Haus zur Lieben Hand Löwenstraße 16, 79098 Freiburg, statt. Einzelheiten zum Ablauf der Tagung entnehmen Sie bitte dem beigefügten Programm. Eine Anfahrtsbeschreibung ist ebenfalls angehängt. Die Tagung findet in englischer Sprache statt und wird von der Europäischen Kommission, dem Walter-Eucken-Institut und dem Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung finanziell unterstützt.

Ihre Anmeldung erbitten wir bis zum 10. März unter Angabe von Name, Funktion und Institution per E-Mail an folgende Adresse: aei@aei-ecsa.de. Die Teilnahmegebühr beträgt für Mitglieder des Arbeitskreises 40 Euro, für externe Teilnehmer 60 Euro und für Studierende und Doktoranden 20 Euro. Die Teilnahmegebühr ist auf das Konto des Arbeitskreises zu überweisen: Kontonummer 8563652, BLZ 37050198 (Sparkasse KölnBonn), Verwendungszweck „Fiscal Consolidation 2011“.

Für Rückfragen wenden Sie sich bitte an die Geschäftsstelle des Arbeitskreises. Wir freuen uns, wenn wir Sie auf unserer Veranstaltung begrüßen können. 

Thema der Tagung

Driven both by anti-cyclical policies and bank rescue packages public deficits have reached record levels in numerous EU countries. After some successful years of debt reduction debt levels thus are pushed up at new heights. This development poses serious questions with respect to the sustainability of public debt given the additional burden from population ageing and shrinking on social expenditures and tax power. Single EU countries have even been pushed towards the risk of defaults. Large budget deficits provoke scientific discussion of intergenerational (in)justice and intragenerational justice between countries. The usage of debt limits and debt brakes enters newly the political arena.

This conference will be devoted to the analysis of this fiscal development, its consequences and possible fiscal strategies. More specifically our event plans to deal with questions of the following type:

  • How did the financial and economic crisis hit public finances in EU countries? Why did some countries prove to be more resilient than others?
  • Which were the key factors behind the particularly dramatic deficit increases? Have these increases only been driven by the recession and the rescue packages or are there structural sources?
  • What are the specific burdens and the incidence of different fiscal consolidation plans? How should principles of justice be applied to consolidation strategies?
  • How should the rules of the European Stability and Growth Pact be applied or adjusted to cope with this development? How should national fiscal rules evolve?
  • What politico-economic role do national debt limits play? What are the main forces in the game of debt limitation reform? Which interest groups may stay in a consolidation conflict, and what will be the outcome of such a conflict game?
  • Is there a role for fiscal discipline from the market pressure and rating agencies?
  • How imminent is the risk of a sovereign default?
  • How could the EU react – both in a preventive and reactive way – to sovereign defaults? Should the “No-bailout-clause” be reinterpreted?

We welcome contributions both from theoretical and empirical economics and from other disciplines such as law or political sciences.

See also the University of Freiburg's Conference Website


Programm

Thursday, March 24

13.00-13.15
Address of welcome
Friedrich Heinemann, Bernhard Neumärker

13.15-15.15
Parallel sessions

Session 1: The Governance of Consolidation
Chair: Bernhard Neumärker

Uwe Wagschal & Georg Wenzelburger (ALU):
The pre-crisis perspective: When do governments consolidate? A quantitative analysis of 23 OECD countries (1980-2005)

Jan Voßwinkel (CEP):
The Euro Crisis from a constitutional economics perspective

Roel Beetsma (University of Amsterdam):
From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU

Session 2: Political Economy and Constitutional Consolidation of Public Debt
Chair: Friedrich Heinemann

Helmut Stix (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division):
Does the Broad Public Want to Consolidate Public Debt? – The Role of Fairness and of Policy Credibility

Nikolai Stähler (Deutsche Bundesbank /Zentrale Öffentliche Finanzen):
The Debt Brake: Business Cycle and Welfare Consequences of Germany's New Fiscal Policy Rule

Bernhard Neumärker, Stephan Wolf (ALU):
Debt Breaks and Deficit Limits: On the Constitutional Economics of Intergenerational Justice

15.15-15.45
Coffee break

15.45-17.15
Parallel sessions

Session 3: Economic Effects of Public Deficits
Chair: Jan Voßwinkel

Simon Tilford (Centre for European Reform, London):
Sustainable debt burdens and economic growth

Shafik Hebous (Goethe University Frankfurt):
Budget Deficit Spillover Effects in the Euro Area

Session 4: Consolidation Strategies in the Euro Area
Chair: Stephan Wolf

Demos Ioannou and Livio Straccay (ECB):
Have euro area and EU economic governance worked? Just the facts

Sebastian Hauptmeier (ECB):
Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area

17.30-18.30
Keynote Jakob de Haan (University of Groningen):
Do Budgetary Institutions Mitigate Political Influences on Fiscal Policy? New Empirical Evidence for the EU

20.00
Dinner Mensa Albert-Ludwigs-Universität
Afterwards: Get-together at the Martinsbräu

Friday, March 25

9.00-11.00
Parallel sessions

Session 5: On the Relation between Fiscal and Financial Crises
Chair: Friedrich Heinemann

Marc-Daniel Moessinger (ZEW Mannheim):
Fiscal rules and risk premia in EU bond markets

Antonio Afonso (ECB):
Credit ratings and the Euro Area sovereign debt crisis

Deniz Sevinc (Bahcesehir University, Istanbul):
Cross Country Consequences of the Financial Crisis and Regulatory Reforms

Session 6: Fiscal Policy in Crisis
Chair: Bernhard Neumärker

Veronica Grembi (Catholic University of Milan):
Do Fiscal Rules Matter? A Difference-in-Discontinuities Design

Mathias Dolls (University of Cologne):
Automatic Stabilizers and Economic Crisis: US vs. Europe

Christoph Priesmeier (Deutsche Bundesbank):
Fiscal policy over the business cycle in Germany – a tale in three acts

11.00-11.30
Coffee break

11.30-12.30
Keynote Bernd Raffelhüschen (ALU):
tba

12:30
Lunch Mensa Albert-Ludwigs-Universität

13.30-14:30
General Meeting of the German Association of Political Economy

14:30
End of conference

 

Tagungsbericht in „integration“

Kalb, Alexander / Moessinger, Marc-Daniel 2011: Konsolidierungskurs nach der Krise – Strategien für Europa, in: integration, Jg. 34, Nr. 3.



Alle Rechte vorbehalten © 2014 AEI